Punters fond of sports betting are always on the lookout for matches with good odds. They are also constantly following the latest news so they make the most reasonable betting decisions. Some of them are waiting to catch up with the best possible odds before the bookmakers adjust them.
The odds change from time to time at every sportsbook. This can occur as a result of various reasons. One of them has to do with a team missing out on one or several key players. Below we'll cover how the bookmakers adjust the odds when key players pick up certain injuries.
The Effect of Injured Key Players on the Betting Odds
When an important football player gets an injury, many bettors instantly avoid backing the team in the following match. Some may even place bets on the opposite team if the key players are that important to the team. The more punters bet on the other team, the more odds shifting will occur.
This will result in bigger odds for the team that features the injured player. On the other hand, the opposite team will get lower odds. Bookmakers will make such adjustments as a way to lower their exposure.
If they offer bigger odds to the opposite team and the punters win, then they’ll lose a lot of money. They’ll also lose money if they simply leave the odds as they are. Instead, they give out more eye-catching odds to the team with the injured player to balance out their potential losses.
For instance, if one of the sides gets 70% of the bets, then the bookmakers will lower their odds. That will demotivate punters to place bets on the featured side. But, the opposite team with the bigger odds will attract more attention and potentially generate some bets.
Some bookmakers may even offer unique bonuses such as enhanced odds to attract the bettors' attention. You can find similar betting offers on sites like Fafabet that can stimulate your betting experience.
It's worth noting that the general public always overreacts when an important player picks up an injury. This is one of the main reasons why bookmakers engage in adjusting their odds.
Adjusting the Odds Using Automized Software Programs
Bookmakers nowadays are using highly sophisticated software programs that automatically create and adjust the odds. These software programs first appeared when live betting became a thing. This new form of betting needed advanced mathematical modelling to calculate the odds in real-time.
These programs produce the odds as a combination of probability and better behaviour. We analyzed the latter in the previous section. It basically adjusts to the choices made by the punters giving out the lower odds to the more attractive betting option.
Now, the probability part of the equation takes into consideration several factors. Among them are the teams' history and past mutual matches, current form, home and away team, and player performances.
Bookmakers also take into consideration experts’ opinions, famous players' opinions, and the overall public view. Combining all of these factors will help the software program create and adjust the odds.
The Impact of Injured Players on Different Betting Markets
Apart from impacting the odds on the 1x2 betting market, the injured players also impact some other betting options. For instance, if a top striker like Messi or Ronaldo gets an injury, then the goal-related markets will get different odds.
The odds for scoring over 2.5 goals will feature lower odds while the odds for scoring under 2.5 goals will get bigger odds. This is due to the lowered team's ability to score goals without their key striker.
A similar thing can occur if a team loses their key defender or goalkeeper. This has the opposite effect on the odds compared to the previous example.
The injured key players can also impact the odds on the outright bets. This is especially true if the player misses out on numerous matches.
An injured star player will also lower the chances of the team winning big competitions such as the Champions League. As a result, the bookmakers will increase the odds on the featured outright bets.